This report by CNET quotes a source that says Android sales will outstrip iPhone by 2012.
Ridiculous!!!
Why? Because I am invested in iPhone development? Because I don’t like Android? No. Because anyone who thinks they can predict this market 3 years into the future is on drugs. Or should be.
The iPhone did not exist 3 years ago in 2006. Android is less than a year old. Think back 3 years. Did these researchers predict that Apple would come up with the iPhone and that it would take the world by storm and a year and a half later Google would start being a phone company? NO! But I bet they were making bold predictions about Nokia and Motorola or whatever device manufacturers were hot back then.
I’m not saying Android WON’T win over iPhone. I don’t think it will, but I’m not placing any bets. I think that if something does outstrip iPhone sales, it is probably more likely that it’s something that doesn’t even exist yet. Things are moving WAY too quickly to make predictions on individual product lines.
OK, here’s my prediction. I predict that in 2012, we’ll all be all excited about something that nobody predicted back in 2009. And if someone mentions the battle between iPhone and Android, we’ll all have a good nostalgic laugh.
Another thing…
Apple invented the iPhone. They came up with that innovation. OK, you can say it’s not innovation, just repackaging of existing stuff. But it’s an innovative packaging that has turned the world upside down. Android is merely trying to copy that and hopefully do something better. That’s a losing game. Most of the time anyway. Even if they do it 3 times better, Apple has the momentum and existing market share, and will continue to innovate where Android will continue to play catch up. That’s why I say that it’s something coming out of left field, some new innovation that you should be looking out for. Not the obvious challenger.
One thing to counter, and I am by no means an apple hater.
Apple’s app store does a pretty good job at limiting innovation that hurts Apples interests.
http://shaungish.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/jotapps.jpg
Not to say there is no innovation, because there are so many great apps… but not allowing flash, none web kit web browsers, anything deemed already on the phone from apple, other video codecs, video, and others… just leaves a bad flavor in my mouth. Simply because I have to get an apple computer (not a hackintosh http://stackoverflow.com/questions/535403/is-it-possible-to-develop-iphone-apps-with-a-hackintosh ) which is expensive, to even see if I’ll enjoy it, and if I do have apple ban your app seems like a whole lotta =[
don’t even get me started on the [fn] key and [ctrl] key swap. = D
I don’t have a pony in the race but as someone interested in making mobile apps I’ve been watching. The iPhone is the superior device now, but it’s development and distribution mechanism have some serious flaws. They better start opening things up soon or those future “killer apps” (which they don’t have now) will appear elsewhere.
I own iPhone but I actually am disappointed with it… No it is a great toy and but in most cases a toy only. It is not made with adaptability in mind and lacks so many common features that it just ridiculous… From one side it is really awesome and innovative device and from others it sucks… Makes it look like unpolished or even cracked in some cases diamond…
Another thing is that Android actually is an open platform meaning that potentially anyone including Apple themselves(tough probably hell will freeze first) can take it and use in their iPhones. I actually even heard that some of jailbraking community that managed to run Linux on iPhone are thinking on trying to port Android to iPhone 😀 So Android is not iPhone competitor at all 🙂 IT is jsut mobile phone OS that will win in numbers over iPhone but not because it is better(tough I believe that eventually it will become better then Apple software) but because it is open and is already used by many phone manufacturers and some even trying to use it on netbooks. That’s why I agree with CNET prediction that it will win over iPhone. Tough may be not in quality but quantity. OR may be even in both.
Now then with something greater coming… Well whatever is coming Android is open free platform and that means that whatever is coming Android has high chances to adopt to it and even embrace it be it trough commercial companies help or free to innovate enthusiasts developers community. What will be with iPhone? Ouh sorry only Apple is truly allowed to innovate and give their developer community tools they decide are not dangerous for them. And that only means that iPhone evolution will be as slow as it is now? Was it 3 years already? And still no copy/paste and MMS 😀 |Yeah that’s how fast iPhone evolves 😀 One line of code at a time 😀 And few per update 😀
The fact that Android is open doesn’t necessarily mean anything at all in terms of how well it’s going to do. The public at large – the 10 million people who are looking to buy their new cool phone – are not programmers and could not care less about open source, if they even know what it is. All they want is a cool phone that does cool things, the one their friend has, the one they see on TV. Same for restrictive app submission policies and NDAs, etc. The public doesn’t really care. We are developers so we talk about this stuff and get outraged by it, but we are in the vast minority. That’s why Apple doesn’t really worry too much about it.
Also, don’t think that just because a device or platform is “better” means that it is going to DO better. Take Twitter and Pownce for example. Pownce was WAY better than Twitter, had way more features, way more possibilities, was WAY more stable. But where is it now? Twitter had the users, it had the momentum, it had the API where people were creating all kinds of Twitter apps. Pownce was better, but failed miserable, mainly because it came to the game too late.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a die-hard Apple fan-boy. I just started a few months ago. If Android takes off and becomes a viable platform to program for, I’ll ride that wave. In the meantime, I’m betting on Apple and the as-yet-to-be-released Device X.
I don’t think there’re so many innovative giants that can produce something that great during this financial tsunami which may last for 1+ year.
yeah– palm has announced the Pre, which at least appears to be ready to play ball with the iPhone and Adroid (we’ll see)… I’ll be interested to see what the future holds for both the Android and the Pre / Web OS. (There’s certainly still some question marks as far as allowing programmers access to deeper levels of the phones functionality so as to make more advanced games possible).
Come on guys….
Why can’t we just write for the device/platform that we decide to invest our time in and let the market sort everything else out.
A few things:
1. Flash can’t be everywhere and frankly with as much as the IDE cost now I am kinda glad that it was not allowed right off the bat. I’m sure there will be some flash plugin in iphone safari’s future. Until then everyone should get out of there comfort zone and develop.
2. Android and IPhone OS have overlapping markets but are not necessarily competitors. There will be multiple types of phones having different form factors and capabilities with the Android OS as there software base just as Windows Mobile has now. This means that developing of those devices will be either very specific or very general. It will kinda be like the difference between developing a game the has to run on PCs with different capabilities and writing a game for a specific platform with only 1 form factor.
3. Palm Pre is just as exciting a platform as IPhone is but it has kind of a “been there seen that” thing going on. I am reading the first chapter to its (pre) dev guide and can see it being simple to develop for as it uses CSS/markup/javascript stack that is very familiar to any of us who have been doing web development. I’ll not be playing favorites so if I imagine an application that will do well on that platform I will not hesitate to realize it.
4. We, well at least some of us, are in the business of writing software for profit. This means that we need to take risk on new platforms while watching the market closely. I was a diehard Microsoft developer for most of my career and I can’t tell you how many times I chuckled at Apple and its products. Looking back I was arrogant and fool hardy. Now that I am writing things for my own personal gain I can’t afford big budget tools and IDEs and OSX/Xcode has appeal. I want to reach a large audience of people who will purchase software impulsively and for the time being IPhone is the place to be for that.
I have to say Keith lets hope your wrong, Apple certainly opened up the phone market but I am not convinced that they will give users the power that they currently have on their macs, not to mention the restrictive rubbish that comes from the network providers, in 3 years time I hope the mobile phone market will have changed maybe beyond recognition, its not some hippy approach where everything should be free, but more that technology is being stifled by plain marketing/sales rubbish/politics. It saddens me that Apple, that so many of us flash designers and developers have embraced, seem so defiant in not allowing any flash on the Iphone, as a mac convert I have to question my loyalty. I for one think the flash community should send a contribution to buying you a G1 dev phone, I would certainly contribute, and all flash mac users and design agencies should petition Apple, it is too long already, many of us put a large chunk of our income into Macs, and apple distinct lack of interest in any support for our industry is a huge disappointment. Its time Apple supported the design industry and its time we realised being cool is biting our own hands.
if(android.formFactor >= apple.iPhone)
migrateMasses();
So 10 years ago (a decade by some measure), I bought my first cell phone. All it did was make calls. That’s it. Including that phone, I’ve now owned 6 different phones in 10 years, each doing that much more than the previous one. At that rate, in 3 (2012) years, I’ll have purchased 2 more phones… and I don’t know what those pones will be… so I agree that there’s no way of knowing what Phone OS will be dominant.
On the other hand, I remember hearing a prediction about 7-8 years ago that said Carriers would ultimately ‘control’ the device market — not just phones, but PDA’s and mp3 players. The theory was, since we all buy our phones from carriers, as devices get more sophisticated/functional, we’d buy what was made available to us.
I think, in 3 years, whichever phone OS or manufacturer has found a way to break free from Carrier dependency will be the winner.
Does anyone know when Apple’s deal with AT&T ends? Does anyone know when Android becomes available for other networks? Does anyone know if Microsoft plans to reveal how truly dominant Windows Mobile actually is and the fact that it’s already available across multiple carriers?
This could help us predict what happens in 3 years… but only time will tell.
KP: I do agree that majority does not have a clue to what open means and stuff.
I can say it like that. My intuition/hunch starting to tell me that iPhone becomes InternetExplorer of phone software market. One that lags behind in many very important things yet is popular and will be popular probably. But I find that platforms like Android can become Mozilla of mobile/netbook market meaning that in long run they will slowly devour any innovations world will throw on them. And I am not that shore Apple will be able to keep up… Their term of service already shows that innovation is not their main goal and developers of SkyPe not even thinking on making iPhone version because of ToS. This is one of clear signs why iPhone innovation possibilities are restricted…
Apple is just one company and yet it tries to restrict it’s developers filtering and censoring what can be done on iPhone and what can’t while whole other world got OS that has planed devices from Samsung, HTC, Nokia, LG and many other companies? Add support of Google and unrestricted community of developers and here are my bet why Apple just can’t compete…
Android will not outstrip iPhone by 2012. Why? Because of the dot mobile trend will bomb! lol. 🙂
But seriously, Android is going to be popular more so outside in countries like China, where’s already being adopted on devices because to doesn’t cost anything for device OEMs. 🙂
If you want to see what might be here in 2012, best thing to do is attend CTIA wireless or MWC. There you’ll find all the R&D, and trends …
Saying Android will outstrip iPhone is like saying Toyota is going to kick Volkswagons ass, there are different markets, and customers and the ecosystems are still evolving and maturing; so it’s like when Toyota and VW first came to market.
One thing I do want to note is that Apple may be having there days in the sun, but I think they will find themselves surrounded by their laggards this year … good thing Apple likes compeition. Looking forward to seeing what the come up with next, so good luck to them.
P.S. CNET sucks for mobile. I’d recommend intomobile.com or a source that is written BY mobile developers FOR mobile developers. Heck, engadget mobile is better than CNET.
Also, doesn’t CNET know there will by flying cars in 2012? They should really get on that, like, right away.
When in doubt, ask the man himself 🙂
So, I have been working with mobile apps for the last few years, and I have to say that anyone who thinks that apple did not innovate or take risks and push boundaries is completely uneducated on the subject.
I’ve worked on apps for Palm, Win Mobile, BlackBerry, iPhone and more… we are currently getting ready for some android, and I am looking forward to that.
People like to set apple up as this bogeyman these days, where apple is getting too popular and it really doesn’t have our best interests at heart. What a bunch of sentimental BullCrap. Apple, like MicroSoft, and Google, and Nokia, and AT&T are all companies. Companies, like freelancers and trolls, need to monetize it is fact. It’s not an evil fact, it’s an actual function of it’s existence.
Where Apple innovations have become the largest success has been cartel breaking, ok cracking… Love or hate apple products as being too simplistic or not technical enough, but respect that apple moves into closed markets and creates new opportunities, google does the same thing, and once upon a time… naw… that’s a cheap shot, MicroSoft does too. OK? everybody happy?
What are the cartels and how has apple cracked them?
Well, the first was the music/entertainment industry, again, you can hate iPods and iTunes, but apple created a market for user friendly / legal solutions at a time when the RIAA members were all pulling knives on the consumer, apple created enough interest to coax these companies into business deals that overall improved the market for the average consumer. Were these deals perfect pie in the sky, free ish for everyone deals? No, of course not, don’t be stupid. The deals were business deals that leveraged apple’s platform, and packaging knowhow, but they were deals made with entrenched and fearful companies that had slaughtered their relationships with average consumers. So, when iTunes debuted as a way for my cousin, sister mom etc to legally purchase and music online and take it with them anywhere in a simple, easy to grock container, it was a breakthrough, and if you blame apple for the cabal that kept you from getting pure unobstructed access to everything, then you have a short site for the facts at hand. Fact is, apple split the difference, made an appealing product and changed the paradigm, before you knew it, Media Moguls were trying to figure out how to cut into apples control of the market by giving better (less restrictive) deals. Which is freaking brilliant, and we should all pat apple on the back for that alone. Instead we mince about ooooh, it’s not wide freaking open.
No. It’s apple. Apple has protected it’s platform in the past by being somewhate restrictive.
Complaint A. Coder “I hate the iPhone app store policies, why can’t i just code whatever I want for iPhone?”
Well, while apple was making a deal in the only industry less sympathetic to it’s customers than the entertainment industry (telecom) apple decided to pry open the platform as much as the felt they could without watering down it’s quality That was a judgment on apple’s part, and you don’t have to like it, but if you have any comprehension of the craptacularness of deploying an app for BlackBerry (the business platform leader) than maybe you could have an ounce of respect for just what a sea change the iPhone has been. AND, maybe you could come to terms with the fact that letting every junk coder write some doof code for your platform doesn’t necessarily improve the overall user experience.
Example support call. to AT&T: “Hi, my IPhone is a piece of crap it won’t work the way I want it too, it’s all buggy!”
AT&T: “Well, you are going to have to call apple about that, not our problem”
CALLER: “Can you connect me?”
AT&T: “let me see… no.” Click
Caller to apple: “I just called at&t and they were stupid, but my iPhone is all crunked up”
apple: “well, who wrote the code? for the apps you downloaded? It’s causing your problems.”
caller “what does that matter?”
The point is, apple has always had a different model with developers, i would say it is improving towards being more open, I can download the iPhone SDK, and xCode, and get started for free. Is it as good as it could be? probably not. Should it be wide open, probably not. Not for apple… maybe that will work for google, as an OS maker, things are a bit different, but apple is a hardware developer first and foremost. And as such it has a different perspective on these issues.
Frankly, I think it’s a perspective that makes sense for apple, and i appreciate having a company with more of a user experience focus in the marketplace.
Whoever “wins” is a debate for 3+ years from now… hopefully it is the consumer. And I think we are seeing a range of products right now that you would never have gotten from the legacy players.
Nice post Greg. I concur.
Hello Keith:
Could you check these below?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmzeTcKvmjE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxn8gNZhe7E
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz6X4BJ1ZFw
Those are mash-up of 2 open source resources.
Android phone is open source and developer/interactive designer don’t have limit or regulation to build creative projects.
That is why cnet.com expect Android phone will outstrip iPhone by 2012.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10191525-94.html
Google Android G1 controls open source robot.
http://www.surveyor.com/blackfin/
And source code is here:
http://code.google.com/p/srv1console/
**
Android OS is running net book also.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pkUpnHM1As
Jf, those are cool but I don’t think robot interaction is going to sell 10 million devices. Goes back to “what’s good for developers isn’t necessarily good foe consumers.”
Also, it seems that Apple is most likely looking at a touch screen netbook like device for later this year.
The only place serious consumer robots are bought, sold, and used in any real quanitity is Japan … sure we have toys and gadgets (iRobot, lego, etc), but I really do have to wonder how iRobot and companies like they are doing these days …
Japan, on the other hand, has a serious population problem … so they are investing a lot of money into hardcore robotics as a possible avenue to fill in gap needed in 20-50 years.
If, anywhere, I think we will see them combine their keitai with robots first and foremost … here it will be R&D for some time to come, IMHO.
Still cool, but I don’t see the avg US consumer really adopting cells to control robotics, quite yet … they still need to be educated on how to use GPS, or download an app or their device, lol … good thing all the youngsters are becoming mobile savvy. Maybe in 10 years … 🙂
I think JF’s point is not about robot build or desktop OS system using Android. Point is the potential of Android phone. Android phone started 3 years behind iphone. But see the current experimental projects or contents of very experimental android’s try. Cause, this open source plat-form opens user’s mind without being controlled by one company.
And indeed, Android market just opened. Any body can sell Android contents now.
http://www.android.com/market/
And here’s new coming G2 android phone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRovWRe4-HI
Thanks for your read
WL, sure it’s open and great for developers. Unfortunately, marketing sells phones, not open-ness or developers. Android’s marketing has a long way to go. Again, not saying it won’t happen, but I don’t see anything yet that will make it happen. Android could come up with something 6 months from now that blows iPhone out of the water. We’ll see.
Well, the prediction may turn true. I guess Sumsang, HTC, Sony Ericsson, LG etc combine together should be able to surpass iPhone’s sale. None of these brands has a good phone OS. Maybe, Nokia will throw its Symbian crap and join the gang too. It’s not a bad thing to us developers. If Android can dominate other markets we can write applications which are much easier to port for other phones. Besides that, it’s good for iPhone too. By then, iPhone will be more special because it will be different from “all the rest”.
It’s a very valid point that kp pointed out that people (normal people, not geeks) don’t really care what system the phone is using and whether it’s “open sauce” or not. So, it’s very likely many people will be carrying Android phones and they have never heard the word “Android”.
All the iPhone binding with telcos and limitations here and there, I feel they are just marketing strategies. They make the owners feel special and make others angry about not be able to be one of them. It’s a human condition that something harder to get is always better.
I´m glad there´s no flash on the iPhone (since it would make surfing the web horribly slow and flash apps/games would essentially kill the market for paid content).
I also like the regulated store system, its not without its flaws at all but at least there´s a propper streamlined way to sell content, unlike on the other devices which are now finally waking up and playing the catch up game.
Also i dislike the Android OS concept because it again leads to the same problem the mobile market has always had: massive differences between handsets so as developer one can´t take a lot for granted and ideally should have lots of handsets to be able to test on em and then always decide which features one can use or for which platforms to optimize.
It maybe is better thanks to sharing the same OS than the crap that was there before the iPhone but yeah,compared to the iPhone where one can halfway rely on specs its a mess.
And yes, i´m saying all this as longtime web and flash developer who is interested enough in new tech, languages etc to have bought his first mac and started iPhone dev out of the blue not as a mac or iPhone fan boy etc.
Came across this post, thought it was vaguely relevant to those reading this thread: http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/
His iPhone app took 6 months and $32K to develop and thus far has returned $535.
Obviously as our own developers we could get that 32K number down, but I’m more concerned about getting that 535 number up. Does anyone actually have a good story to share about the numbers?
Marcus, I saw Owen’s talk at 360iDev. There’s so much that can be said about that…
I really question the idea of quitting your job and going off full time for 6 months to make your first iPhone game. Also, the game may be great, but the initial impression is that it’s one of a million “match the colors in the grid” games. He hasn’t advertised, the game is $4.99 and there’s no Lite version.
You want a better story? My Falling Balls game. I made it over the course of a weekend – a weekend that included family time, shopping and eating out a couple times, not locked up with my computer. It’s been out less than a month and a half and has made a LOT of cash on AdMob revenue. On a single good day it can make more than that total $535 that Owen’s game made. 🙂
I think his big mistake was hearing that there was big money in iPhone dev and dropping everything, hoping to cash in. Every app or game isn’t going to be a killer. Making one game and sitting back and waiting for the ship to come in is not a good business model. “Don’t quit your day job” as the saying goes. Do it part time to start, and it’s all icing on the cake. If you build a brand and start making steady money, then consider going full time with it.
Oops…
“oops” because now i’m into android and use and android phone? Meh. I never said the prediction was false. We still have a couple years to go. Personally, I’d love to see Android win. Still not convinced it will though.